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Prediction for CME (2022-09-28T05:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-28T05:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21781/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen to the East in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. There is a notable eruption signature from the eastern side of AR 13110 (centered near N15E18) starting around 2022-09-28T03:40Z as seen in all SDO/AIA wavelengths. The filament portion is most clearly seen in SDO/AIA 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-10-01T15:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-30T09:48Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-09-28 07:41
 - Time at C2: 2022-09-28 04:48
 - Radial speed: 1085.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 22 deg
 - Eruption location: N10E30
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 731.50 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-09-30 09:48 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.00 hours)
Lead Time: 49.28 hour(s)
Difference: 29.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-09-29T13:48Z
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